Researchers have found that the rate of global warming from atmospheric carbon dioxide could be less than previously thought.
This research has been done by researchers including researchers from Oregon State University and published online in the November 24 issue of Journal Science.
Researchers have found that the problem of global warming is not that serious as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007.
Andreas Schmittner, an Oregon State University researcher and lead author, said,
Many previous climate sensitivity studies have looked at the past only from 1850 through today, and not fully integrated paleoclimate date, especially on a global scale. When you reconstruct sea and land surface temperatures from the peak of the last Ice Age 21,000 years ago – which is referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum – and compare it with climate model simulations of that period, you get a much different picture.
If these paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, the results imply less probability of extreme climatic change than previously thought.
Researchers have reported,
Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
This study has been funded by National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimate Program.
Andreas Schmittner, Nathan M. Urban, Jeremy D. Shakun, Natalie M. Mahowald, Peter U. Clark, Patrick J. Bartlein, Alan C. Mix, Antoni Rosell-Melé, (2011). Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum. Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1203513